The natural life cycle of new media evolution

This article analyzes the evolution of the internet, with special emphasis on its impact on older media in their struggle to survive. The analysis is based on a 6-stage, natural life cycle model of new media evolution, comprising birth (technical invention), penetration, growth, maturity, self-defense, and adaptation, convergence or obsolescence. Our universal model melds several elements of previous theories and analyses from disparate fields such as media history, marketing, technological diffusion and convergence, while adding a few new aspects as well. The model’s three contributions lie in expanding the scope – quantitatively and qualitatively – of new media’s development stages (beyond the three or four stages noted by others); emphasizing the interaction and struggle between old and new media; and analyzing ‘functional-life after appliance-death’ of media transformed/co-opted into something old/new. Applying this model to the internet enables us to better understand its future evolution and the survival chances of older mass media.